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Chief Executive of the Department of Corrections v Belcher HC Auckland CRI 2004-404-444 [2005] NZHC 1726 (22 April 2005)
Last Updated: 7 September 2020
IN THE HIGH COURT OF NEW ZEALAND AUCKLAND REGISTRY
CRI 2004-404-000444
THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF
CORRECTIONS
Applicant
v
JOSEPH RONALD BELCHER
Respondent
Hearing: 12 April 2005 Appearances: M T Davies for Applicant
M A Edgar for Respondent Judgment: 22 April 2005

JUDGMENT OF KEANE J
Solicitors
Crown Solicitor, Auckland
THE CHIEF EXECUTIVE OF THE DEPARTMENT OF CORRECTIONS V JOSEPH
RONALD BELCHER HC AK CRI 2004-404-000444 [22 April 2005]
- [1] On 9
February 1996 Joseph Belcher was sentenced to ten years imprisonment for
kidnapping and seven years imprisonment, concurrently,
for indecent assault of,
a ten year old girl. He was released on 14 November 2001, and remained subject
to standard conditions of
release until 13 November 2003. He was liable to be
recalled to prison to continue serving his sentence until 17 December 2004. On
15 October 2004 the Chief Executive of the Department of Corrections
applied to have Mr Belcher made subject to an extended
supervision order
under s 107F of the Parole Act 2002.
- [2] There is no
issue that Mr Belcher lies within the category of a ‘transitional eligible
offender’: s 107Y. The indecent
assault of the girl constitutes, for the
purpose of this application, a ‘relevant offence’: s 107B(2). There
is no issue
that the Chief Executive is able, as he has by his delegate, the
ability to apply under s 107F for an extended supervision
order.
- [3] The issue is
whether such an order is justifiable, and if it is, whether it should, as
applied for, extend for the maximum term
of ten years.
Discretion
- [4] Section
107I defines the Court’s task, and the form of order
contemplated:
(1) The purpose of an extended supervision order is to protect
members of the community from those who, following receipt of a determinate
sentence, pose a real and ongoing risk of committing sexual offences against
children or young persons.
(2) A sentencing court may make an extended supervision order
if, following the hearing of an application made under section 107F,
the court
is satisfied, having considered the matters addressed in the health
assessor’s report as set out in section 107F(2),
that the offender is
likely to commit any of the relevant offences referred to in section 107B(2) on
ceasing to be an eligible offender.
(3) ...
(4) Every extended supervision order must state the term of the
order, which may not exceed 10 years.
(5) The term of the order must be the minimum period required
for the
purposes of the safety of the community in light of—
(a) the level of risk posed by the offender; and
(b) the seriousness of the harm that might be caused to victims;
and
(c) the likely duration of the risk.
Essential issue
- [5] The
issue, posed by s 107I(2), is essentially whether Mr Belcher is
‘likely’ to commit any ‘relevant offence’
– that
is any one of the sexual, or sexually related offences, against children and
young persons, prescribed by the Crimes
Act 1961.
- [6] The section
is not more prescriptive but relevant to the exercise of the discretion must be
those matters, which s 107F requires
a ‘health assessor’ to
address:
(a) The nature of any likely future sexual offending by the
offender, including the age and sex of likely victims:
(b) The offender’s ability to control his or her sexual
impulses:
(c) The offender’s predilection and proclivity for sexual
offending:
(d) The offender’s acceptance of responsibility and
remorse for past offending:
(e) Any other relevant factors.
- [7] The issue,
as posed, imposes no onus of proof on the Chief Executive. As the Court of
Appeal said in R v Leitch [1998] 1 NZLR 420, when speaking of the
sentence of preventive detention, “the need to be ‘satisfied’
calls for
the exercise of judgment by the sentencing Court”: see also
Chief Executive Department of Corrections v McIntosh (HC Christchurch CRI
2004-409-162, 8 December 2004). The Chief Executive will, no doubt, wish to be
persuasive. The responsibility
rests with the Court.
- [8] ‘Likely’
has been interpreted, elsewhere in the Parole Act, as meaning ‘something
that may well happen’:
Secretary for Justice v M (1990) 6 CRNZ 57,
Thorpe J; an interpretation I gratefully adopt.
Offence history
- [9] Mr
Belcher’s offending began in 1970, and until 1983, while persistent, and
varied, was not sexual. In January 1984 he was
fined $150 for lurking, loitering
and peering into a dwelling. In 1986 he was sentenced to a community programme
for six months for
an indecent act with intent to insult a male. In September
1986 he was sentenced to 80 hours community service for obscenely exposing
himself in public. He continued to offend more variously until 1989, when his
sexual offending escalated sharply.
- [10] In early
February 1989, Mr Belcher was sentenced to three months imprisonment for
obscenely exposing himself and for being unlawfully
in a building. In late
February he was sentenced, effectively, to seven years imprisonment for 17
offences, a number of which were
sexual. In June 1989 that sentence was
sustained on appeal.
- [11] The Court
of Appeal, in its decision, described Mr Belcher’s offending
thus:
On the afternoon of 16 January 1989 at Bowentown on two separate
occasions Belcher masturbated himself in front of school age children.
In the
small hours of the following morning at three separate camping grounds in the
Waihi Beach and Bowentown areas he broke into
caravan awnings of holiday campers
by cutting through or undoing part of the awning. In one case he attempted to do
so and in another
he entered the caravan with intent to commit a crime. His
object was to fondle children there. During the incidents he indecently
assaulted two young children and attempted to indecently assault two others. He
also persuaded an eight year old girl to walk away
with him towards the beach,
but when called for she ran back. Six months earlier, on 31 July 1988, Belcher
entered a ward at the
Tauranga Public Hospital around 2 a.m. in the morning and
fondled the genitals of a young woman patient who was asleep there. The
remaining charge before the High Court related to a police search of
Belcher’s address on 11 November 1988 in the course of
which they found
800 grammes of cannabis leaf. He admitted having possession for supply.
It is apparent from the victim impact reports that, as would in
any event be expected, the children asleep in the caravan awning the
actual or
intended subjects of his intentions, and their families, have suffered
considerably in the result, as has the young woman
indecently assaulted in her
hospital bed. This can only be characterised as very serious offending.
- [12] Also
pertinent is what the Court had to say about Mr Belcher himself:
He
told the probation officer that he had little memory of the events at the
camping grounds, that he was under some stress at the
time arising from the
breakup of a de facto association, that he was sorry for what he had done,
adding ‘just touching –
not meaning to hurt anyone –
childish’, and that he wanted to overcome the problems that beset him. The
sentencing Judge
also had before him a report from a psychiatrist who had
examined Belcher. In that report the psychiatrist referred to a long history
of
sexual problems, particularly in relation to touching young boys and girls and
sexual urges which Belcher could not control. The
psychiatrist concluded that
Belcher was not under any psychiatric disability, but considered he was
suffering from an anti-social
personality disorder, together with a psychosexual
disorder, Froteurism, toucherism, voyeurism and probably paedophilia.
- [13] Especially
pertinent in the psychiatrist’s report, dated 22 February 1989, which had
been prepared for the purpose of sentence,
is this:
Mr Belcher intimated to me that he had sexual problems since
about the age of 12, in that he got sexual pleasure out of touching the
genitals
of boys or girls while they were asleep, following which he would masturbate.
Apparently he also enjoys ‘peeping’
and masturbating in public,
sexual urges that he apparently cannot control.
- [14] Having
served the sentence imposed, and after three years in the community, Mr Belcher
offended again in a strikingly similar
way. At 3.20 am on 3 March 1995, at a
Tauranga caravan park, where Mr Belcher was staying, after an hour with a
prostitute, with
whom he had attempted apparently unsuccessfully to have
intercourse, he kidnapped and indecently assaulted the ten year old
girl.
- [15] The
statement of facts against which Mr Belcher pleaded said
this:
The accused then walked to a caravan parked at site 41 ... He
broke into the caravan awning by opening the closed doors. The caravan
and
awning were occupied by the complainant and her family who were on holiday in
Tauranga.
Directly inside the awning door the accused located the
complainant ... , aged 10 years, who was asleep on a camp stretcher. He knelt
down beside her head and shone his torch on to her face.
The complainant awoke due to the light in her eyes and then felt
a wet substance splash on to her face. She went back to sleep.
The accused removed her from her sleeping bag and carried her
bodily out of the caravan awning toward his cabin which was 16 metres
away.
After a short period of time the complainant awoke, to find
herself being carried by the accused, from near his car, back towards
her
caravan awning. The accused was heard to say ‘I’ve got to take her
back’ several times over.
The accused carried the complainant back into the awning and placed her back
on her camp stretcher before running off. ... A forensic
examination of genital
swabs taken from the complainant revealed the presence of sperm. No evidence of
vaginal penetration was located.
- [16] The Judge
described the offence and the effect on the child thus:
... you came as a thief in the dead of night to where a 10 year
old girl was sleeping and you literally plucked her from the bosom
of her
slumbering family. You then took her to your cabin and there indecently
assaulted her. Mr Belcher, I want to tell you I am
completely satisfied the
actions which you took with that girl, or really child, went much further than
as I see in the psychiatric
report, you say you looked at her naked, because the
subsequent tests indicate the presence of semen about the private parts of her
body. Having assaulted her you then returned her to the campsite from whence you
had originally taken her.
- [17] The Judge
said that the effect on the child had been considerable and lasting. He noted
that Mr Belcher had, at that point, 62
previous convictions. He described the
psychiatric assessment he had as presenting a ‘chilling picture’ and
concluded
that Mr Belcher was clearly a risk to the
community.
- [18] The Crown
submitted, on sentence, that the appropriate sentence was preventive detention.
Counsel for Mr Belcher submitted that
he was no longer in denial and was open to
therapy. The Judge considered that Mr Belcher did ‘undoubtedly
qualify’ for
preventive detention but in the event imposed the finite
sentence, ten years, which concluded relatively recently.
- [19] In this the
Judge was influenced by a comment in the psychiatric report that Mr Belcher,
though a significant community risk,
was not ‘at the most malignant end of
the paedophilic continuum’ and, though likely to re-offend within the next
five
or six years, could be expected after the age of 40, when ‘the
incidence of paedophilia drops precipitously’ to cease
to be such a risk.
The Judge decided that this justified a lengthy finite sentence, not preventive
detention, the sentence of last
resort.
Assessor’s opinion
- [20] The
assessment on which the Chief Executive relies was made by Dr N.J. Wilson, a
registered psychologist, and a senior adviser
(research) with
the
Department of Corrections, on 2 September 2004. In his assessment Dr Wilson
reviewed assessments made of Mr Belcher made for sentence,
and during sentence,
extending back to 1989, perhaps earlier. Using actuarial instruments he measured
the likelihood of Mr Belcher’s
risk of relevant re-offending by three
measures. Finally, he reviewed Department records relating to the last three
years during
which Mr Belcher has been in the community. He did attempt to
interview Mr Belcher, but Mr Belcher chose not to be interviewed.
Departmental assessments
- [21] In 1992,
during the seven year term of imprisonment, Mr Belcher completed the Kia Marama
Specialist Sex Offender Treatment Programme.
He was assessed as highly
motivated, and as able to understand what he needed to do to prevent, or avoid
the consequence of, any
relapse. He was seen still to have difficulty
controlling his emotions. He was thought not to be socially competent. There had
been
crises in the programme when he had asserted his rights as he thought them
to be. He was rated still to be at moderate risk of
re-offending.
- [22] After the
ten year sentence was imposed in 1995 Mr Belcher entered the Te Piriti
Specialist Sex Offender Programme, a 40 week
programme, but completed eight
weeks only. He was removed from the programme. His influence on others and his
attitude to staff were
thought disruptive. He was assessed as having made only
minimal progress. He was rated at high risk of
re-offending.
- [23] In 2000 Mr
Belcher received individual counselling from a senior psychologist in the
Corrections Department, focusing on aggression;
also on anxiety, believed to
contribute to his sexual offending. He declined to take anti-andronergic
medication to reduce his libido.
He was concerned about the side effects. The
psychologist considered Mr Belcher had learned to manage his depression more
successfully.
He needed still to learn how to face up to causes of depression,
and to cease substance abuse. His unwillingness to use anti-andronergic
medication, the psychologist considered, left him exposed to impulse. He
remained at high risk of re-offending.
- [24] Finally,
between March – June 2001, Mr Belcher underwent further group treatment,
to increase his knowledge of sexual function
and as to how to control arousal.
He was encouraged to develop a safety plan to counter his impulse to offend. He
participated actively
and was assessed as well aware of his ‘offence
chain’. The degree to which he was still at risk of re-offending was not
assessed.
Actuarial assessments
- [25] The
RoC*RoI measure, the first of the actuarial instruments Dr Wilson used,
devised in New Zealand, predicts risk of reconviction and likelihood
of
re-imprisonment, relying on static factors derived from information held on the
Wanganui computer system. This measure, based
on a sample of 144,000 criminal
histories, from which factors predictive of re-offending were drawn, was applied
to a second sample
of 38,000, and found to have an overall accuracy of 83
percent for the New Zealand population.
- [26] By this
measure Mr Belcher was found to have a high risk of re-conviction, and of
re-imprisonment, for serious re-offending,
within five years. His long history
of offending, the frequency of his convictions, and his four periods of
imprisonment for serious
offences, were all highly
indicative.
- [27] The second
instrument, the Static-AS measure, estimates the probability of sexual
recidivism, against seven static factors. Mr Belcher’s score was very
high, and
individuals with similar scores in New Zealand have been found to
re-offend sexually within five years of release, the risk increasing
over ten
years.
- [28] The third
measure, the Sex Offender Need Assessment Rating (Sonar), assesses five
relatively stable dynamic factors (intimacy deficits, negative social
influences, attitudes tolerant of sex
offending, sexual self regulation, and
general self regulation), and four acute factors (substance abuse, negative
mood, anger, and
victim access). This measure distinguishes between those who
will re-offend and those who will not with moderate success, but Mr
Belcher was
found to be at very high risk. He scored highly for three of the five stable
factors, and all four of the acute risk
factors were present.
- [29] Factors
that Dr Wilson derived from the file and interview information, which he did not
directly assess actuarially, but thought
highly relevant, were
these:
- The large number
and young age of his previous victims.
- His first sexual
offending occurring when he was adolescent.
- History
of diverse deviant sexual behaviours (e.g. voyeurism, Froteurism, and
exhibitionism).
- Prominence of
hostile beliefs.
- Poor social
competency.
- Aggressive
interpersonal style.
- High social
PCL: SV assessment in 1998 indicating presence of anti-social
personality.
- High levels of
reported deviant sexual preferences.
- High levels of
sexual preoccupation.
- His previous
treatment failure.
- Poor previous
response to supervision.
- [30] Relying on
those risk factors, and the actuarial measures, Dr Wilson stated the parameters
of risk thus:
If Mr Belcher continues to have intimacy deficits, poor social
influences, a deviant sexual arousal preference for young children,
sexual
preoccupation, hostility towards others, little insight into high risk
situations, and poor response to supervision; then
there is a high probability
(high RoC*RoI, Static-AS and Sonar ratings) that he will engage in
serious sexual offending involving kidnapping and sexual assault within five
years of release
that may place stranger female children at risk of indecent
assault.
Community assessments
- [31] Since being
released three and a half years ago, Dr Wilson noted, Mr Belcher has settled in
rented accommodation, which is very
ordered and well cared for, but has painted
over windows and placed bars over entrances. He is in receipt of the invalids
benefit
but not obtained work. He has been banned from WINZ, and issued a
trespass notice. Hospital staff experienced similar difficulty,
when an
operation for an injury to his nose had to be delayed.
- [32] Mr Belcher,
Dr Wilson noted, has continued to smoke cannabis on a regular basis, and to
drink a minimal amount of beer each fortnight.
Since 2002 he has not offended
sexually. He has acquired convictions for cannabis possession and cultivation,
as well as for shoplifting,
theft of a motor vehicle and fraudulent use of a
document.
- [33] Within
months of release, Dr Wilson said, community probation staff noted that Mr
Belcher had associated with an array of people
involved in ‘underage
prostitution, threats, alcoholism, transvestism, manipulation and
control.’ Of concern was Mr Belcher’s
association with a 15 year old
girl, who had been a prostitute. There was no suggestion that he had offended
sexually. He had been
actively concerned about her welfare. But he had not seen
the relationship to be inappropriate, or been willing to step back. He
had
lacked the insight.
- [34] Mr Belcher,
Dr Wilson said, appeared to have limited social support. To manage his risk he
seemed to have focused only on the
risk of preventive detention. That was
unlikely to be effective.
Statutory assessment
- [35] Against
that background Dr Wilson made his own assessment, on which the application
hinges:
Mr Belcher is assessed as likely to commit further sexual
offences against children and adolescents under the age of 12 with his victims
likely to be female and strangers. He has a poor ability to control his sexual
impulses and is believed to continue to have a predilection
and proclivity for
sexual offences against children. Mr Belcher was reported in treatment prior to
release to have taken responsibility
for his offending, learned the skills to
manage his risk, and developed better strategies to reduce his aggressive
interpersonal
style. However, his behaviour since release has not confirmed
this, especially his poor response to supervision, aggressive and hostile
behaviour, substance abuse, association with anti-social associates, continued
non-sexual reoffending, and reported unsupervised
relationship with a vulnerable
15 year old girl.
- [36] As to the
extent of any extended supervision imposed, he added this:
Research indicates that individuals of Mr Belcher’s
assessed risk level remain as likely to reoffend over an extended period
as they
are within a
shorter period. For this reason it is recommended that, if an order is
applied (for) it should be for the maximum length available
under the
legislation, that is ten years.
Contrary opinion
- [37] In
a report, dated 1 February 2005, Dr Andrew Moskowitz, engaged to evaluate Mr
Belcher in response, after reviewing material
relied on by Dr Wilson, drawn from
departmental records, principally those since the 1995 sentence was imposed, and
having interviewed
Mr Belcher in his home for three and a half hours, reached
this conclusion:
Several factors need to be considered when judging Mr
Belcher’s risk for sexual reoffending in the future. The first, and in
my
opinion, most important factor, is that there is no evidence that Mr Belcher has
sexually offended for almost ten years. Now,
while much of that time has been
spent in prison, Mr Belcher has been out for almost three and a half years and
has not sexually
offended. This is despite the fact that he was living with a
vulnerable young woman, working as a prostitute, whom he clearly could
have
sexually assaulted had he wanted to. There is no evidence to suggest that he
did. Thus, while his association with this troubled
young woman has been painted
in a negative light (i.e., inability to remove himself from high risk
situations), I would suggest quite
the opposite. He acted out of empathy for
this young woman (also not typical of psychopathy), and did not sexually offend
despite
being in – without doubt – a high risk situation. That
speaks strongly toward his potential to refrain from sexually
offending.
- [38] There were
a number of other factors, which Dr Moskowitz regarded as salient and these also
deserve to be set out in full:
- The late onset
of the sexual offences. Mr Belcher was not convicted of sexually offending until
his 30s. As with all forms of offending,
an earlier onset is more strongly
associated with high recidivism. This late onset would argue to a lower risk of
future offending.
- The magnitude of
the offences. While there is some disagreement between Mr Belcher’s
accounts of the sexual offences and the
summary of facts, there is no suggestion
that Mr Belcher ever engaged in any sexually inappropriate behaviours other than
exposing
himself, masturbating in front of girls (and possibly a boy), and
inappropriately touching females. That is to say he has never attempted
to
‘interfere’ with a young girl or woman. In addition, there is no
suggestion that Mr Belcher has ever resorted to physical
violence in his sexual
offending.
- Adequate
functioning when previously released. Mr Belcher, by all accounts, did very well
between 1993 and 1995. His offending occurred
after a period of depression when
his history as a sexual offender was
revealed,
essentially sabotaging his work at his brother’s restaurant.
- Insight into
offence cycle. Mr Belcher demonstrated a good awareness of the role of
depression and attempts to externally regulate
his emotions by sexually
offending. Of note, while his expressions of anger can sometimes appear extreme
(and even intimidating),
there is no evidence that such emotional dyscontrol has
any connection to sexual offending.
- Substance abuse.
While abuse of heroin and alcohol appears to have played a role in Mr
Belcher’s prior offending, neither are
currently an issue for
him.
- [39] Concluding,
Dr Moskowitz emphasised that Mr Belcher has, in the last three and a half years,
lived in the community without offending
sexually. He has reached the age of 50
years and sexual offending decreases, Dr Moskowitz said, with age. He ought not,
Dr Moskowitz
concluded, to be made subject to any extended supervision order,
let alone one of the length proposed.
Hearing
- [40] At
the hearing, at which Mr Belcher was present, as s 107G(4) requires, Dr Wilson,
who had filed an affidavit in reply, and Dr
Moskowitz, were extensively
cross-examined. Mr Belcher did not give evidence. Instead his counsel, as well
as cross-examining Dr
Wilson, made carefully considered submissions on his
behalf.
- [41] The most
significant difference between Dr Wilson and Dr Moskowitz lay in their
contrasting opinions as to the relative worth
of clinical interviews and
actuarial measures. Dr Wilson, whose clinical experience is extensive,
considered his inability to interview
Mr Belcher of no decisive significance.
His opinion as to the risk Mr Belcher presents depended, he said, on well
recorded entrenched
behaviour, which began when Mr Belcher was only just
adolescent, or was even preadolescent.
- [42] The
actuarial measures have the distinct value, Dr Wilson considers, of bringing
statistical objectivity to bear. A clinical
assessment, without more, even one
based on good information as there was for Mr Belcher, he said, could be too
subjective and imprecise
and give too much weight to the immediate and
evanescent. He did accept that a clinical interview could assist to understand
what
is likely to happen over the shorter term.
- [43] Dr
Moskowitz, conversely, considers that a clinical interview, informed by rich
material, as there is in this case, gives to
an experienced clinician an
unrivalled insight into what is likely in the short even medium term. Actuarial
measures, he stated,
while he had no direct experience of those on which Dr
Wilson relied, could strait jacket an assessment, and exclude the possibility
of
fruitful change. Human behaviour, he said, cannot be assessed against static
factors alone. Dynamic factors are more potent predictors.
- [44] Despite Dr
Moskowitz’s carefully considered reservations, I accept Dr
Wilson’s assessment of risk. It
is founded on a more complete review of
Departmental assessments than Dr Moskowitz was able to make. Dr Moskowitz
assumed, incorrectly,
that Mr Belcher had never actually indecently assaulted
his victims. Dr Wilson had the advantage of the actuarial assessments,
which Dr Moskowitz lacked and could not contest. Dr Moskowitz was unaware of
the concerning studies as to duration of risk.
- [45] Dr Wilson
may not have been able to interview Mr Belcher, a disadvantage which Dr
Moskowitz, a highly experienced clinician,
was right to point out. But I cannot
myself accept, conversely, that in a single interview Dr Moskowitz could have
obtained sufficient
reliable information from Mr Belcher to raise any serious
doubts about the reliability of Dr Wilson’s multi-faceted
assessment.
Conclusions
- [46] To
this application, Mr Belcher’s past sexual offending has to be of the
first importance. In those offences, which the
Courts on sentence and appeal
described as of a very serious order, Mr Belcher preyed sexually on the young.
He exposed himself,
and sometimes masturbated, in front of young children during
the day. At night he entered their tents, when they were asleep and
were even
more vulnerable. He abducted two. He indecently assaulted two. His 1995 offence,
one of indecency, could well on the facts
on which the Judge sentenced have been
more serious than that charged. Semen was found in the vicinity of the
child’s genitalia.
- [47] As
concerning has to be that the 1995 offending, the relevant offending
for
the purpose of this application, happened after Mr Belcher had completed the
seven year term imposed for the 1998 offences and had
been in the community for
three years. And it was strikingly similar. Whatever led Mr Belcher to re-offend
as he did, and isolation
and depression appear to have played a part, the
lengthy sentence of imprisonment served not long before, and the Kia Marama
programme,
proved ineffectual.
- [48] No absolute
assurance can be taken, therefore, from the fact that in the last three years Mr
Belcher, once again in the community,
has not offended sexually, especially as
for two of those years he has been under supervision. The issue has to be
whether, if he
becomes liable to depression again, and is isolated from any
objective aid, he may revert.
- [49] Mr Belcher
had to leave the Te Piriti programme early, in itself a troubling fact, and the
various assessments made of him for
sentence, and during sentence, most
especially the most recent, and the actuarial assessments, converge, nearly
unanimously, in describing
Mr Belcher as at high continuing
risk.
- [50] Of equal
concern has to be the studies, to which Dr Wilson referred, which show that,
where an offender has the proclivity to
offend sexually, as Mr Belcher has
plainly had, that risk first reduces at age 40, but only begins to dissipate in
a real sense at
age 60. Mr Belcher is aged 50. Even if his life is stable
presently, the risk he poses will remain alive for the next ten
years.
- [51] How stable
Mr Belcher’s life is presently one cannot be sure. Dr Moskowitz and Dr
Wilson differ diametrically. Mr Belcher
may maintain a well conducted household.
His relations with others are by far more significant and much less easy to
assess. Perhaps,
unsurprisingly, he does not interrelate well with those
supervising him, or those responsible for his entitlements. The only
relationships
he is known to have raise questions. He may well be isolated. He
may still be vulnerable to depression. He may no longer be addicted
to heroin.
That apart, most of the triggers that impelled him to offend so seriously in
1988 and 1995 may still be there.
- [52] These
several factors, combined, satisfy me, in terms of s 107I(2), that
while
Mr Belcher has not offended sexually in the last three years it is likely that,
unless supervised, he will commit a relevant offence,
and that in that sense he
continues to pose a real and ongoing risk to the young. The ten year period of
supervision sought, I consider,
in terms of s 107I(5), is the only sensible
measure. There is no obvious earlier minimum end point. The studies suggest the
contrary.
There will be the order applied for.
P.J. Keane J
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URL: http://www.nzlii.org/nz/cases/NZHC/2005/1726.html